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Thread: The future

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Weston super Mare
    Posts
    93

    Default The future

    So, the world is allegedly going over to electric cars and that's all that will be made from 2030.

    Well, I have two NA1 NSXs which I plan to keep for many years to come but I'm wondering how the classic car market will look. Will the bottom fall out of it?

    Will petrol be deliberately priced so high that nobody wants one any more, to drive us off the roads?

    What to you guys (and gals) think?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Switzerland
    Posts
    1,006

    Default

    I think collectors getting older and I do fear that the younger people won't value older cars as high as we do.

  3. #3

    Default

    I think the best defence to the main risk of ageing owners is an active club to ensure we can get younger owners interested in our cars. I think this is what has happened with the NSX community in the US they seem to have a larger proportion of younger owners, no data to back this up just a feeling based on mainly facebook posts.

    We have a club www.nsxclub.co.uk and many events planned for 2021 and if we can get good attendance this will be a start at getting our special and rare cars better known to a younger audience. Rarity works against us in the transfer of interest to younger generations.

    For my part I doubt I will outlive the availability of petrol so I am not that concerned about this risk. Porsche will start testing green synthetic "petrol" in 2022 so this could be the answer:

    https://www.carscoops.com/2021/02/po...20wind%20power.
    [SIGPIC]

    www.nsxclub.co.uk

    2001 NA2 Imola Orange Pearl/Black Leather (Type S evocation)
    2003 NA2 Long Beach Blue/Black Leather (NSX-R evocation)

    Non NSX
    Lotus Carlton 30/250

    Previous NSX
    2004 NA2-R Championship White/Red Seats 111/150 personal import April 2016 sold 2020
    NA2 2005 NA2 LBB/Grey Leather last 12 car, 2005 Pearl White/Red Leather last 12 car, 2003-T Black/Black, 2003-T Red/Black
    NA1 1996 Type R White/Black 447/483, 2 x 1991 manual, 1993 manual, 1996-T manual, 2002-T F-matic

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Switzerland
    Posts
    1,006

    Default

    I guess you're right about attracting younger people for the NSX.

    In Switzerland (we had quite a lot of NSx per capita ), the market is in a dead end. Prices far too high for younger people who have different priorities than owning a 30 year old car. Repairs are overly expensive too.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Location
    Near Stuttgart, Germany
    Posts
    246
    Blog Entries
    25

    Default

    This seems to be true for any even remotely popular old car. Since roughly 2014 prices are climbing and climbing, similar to real estate prices all over the world.
    1997 JDM Custom Order AT VIN 1400005 - Stock
    Heineken's Garage

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Switzerland
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    1,006

    Default

    I think there would be some interest in the car if only prices were not that high. And I remember 2-3 cars at around 50-65% of the 'moon' prices that sold within less than a month (all standing at Honda or ex-Honda dealers). Baseline is around EUR 40-50k for a good car without major problems and documentated service history. Garage queens might ask higher prices but every dealer thinks his one is a garage queen.

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Graham View Post
    So, the world is allegedly going over to electric cars and that's all that will be made from 2030.

    Well, I have two NA1 NSXs which I plan to keep for many years to come but I'm wondering how the classic car market will look. Will the bottom fall out of it?

    Will petrol be deliberately priced so high that nobody wants one any more, to drive us off the roads?

    What to you guys (and gals) think?
    I think we’ll be dead by the time things really get serious! Check out the Harry’s garage video on YouTube discussing this very topic. It’s really interesting.
    Personally I think these things take longer than we think they will. There are well over 30 million cars on the road, and a considerable amount of these cars are driven by people who cannot afford to buy or lease new electric vehicles. We are also lacking an adequate infrastructure. My friends who work at the power station tell me we’d be in a bit of trouble if we all started buying electric. This is hearsay however, but I think they’re right.
    I guess the big changes will be driven from the cities where owning your own car will seem untenable in the next ten or so years. You’ll simply hire what you need when you need it. It makes me wonder whether driving will become a thing of the past for many; if you grow up in a city, then go to university in a city how likely are you to want or need to drive. You probably end up working from home anyway.
    The classic segment is quite small in comparison to the bulk of vehicles on the road. Rising prices stop us from using them and they have a tiny carbon footprint compared to new electric vehicles. Exactly how much of a carbon footprint can a thirty year old car that does a thousand miles a year have?
    With regard to the younger drivers becoming interested in classics. Well, where I live there is quite a lot of interest. It worries me that they are growing up with popularist junk like top gear. I watched half an episode last week. Just shocking painful rubbish. But there is a huge amount of content on youtube and other social media.
    Personally I think that the 80’s to mid 90’s was the heyday of cars. They became usable and are still easy to work on. Build quality was better than it is now and cars were stylish. But with every generation that fades away, so another era of cars is eventually lost. If no-one remembers them, or they are too
    Difficult to look after. There is little or no incentive to own them.

    I think we’ll be ok for a while.

    Cheers.
    I am Godzilla, you are Japan!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Garden of England
    Posts
    2,772

    Default

    the plan won't involve people owning or leasing cars, the model will be to ping an app and the self driving car will come and ferry you to where you want to go, or where the app will allow you to go!

    why do you think we are seeing all the add-ons being fitted to cars, everything from lane change alerts, self braking cars to avoid accidents, self driving cars that have to be watched all the time, self parking cars. none of this is 'driver aids', it's all on road testing without the big OEMs having to pay (or be liable for the inevitable cockups) for all the millions of miles of testing to be carried out. the 'oh look at my new gadget' brigade are doing all the testing for them, and when it goes wrong, like self driving teslas crashing, it's the 'drivers' fault for not being poised all the times to jump in when something goes wrong... but you can be sure the car has logged all the parameters for the manufacturers investigation after.

    as for fuel.... they won't stop it, it'll just get too expensive to buy.....
    aka Jonathan!!

    '92 charlotte green auto.... as a daily
    '37 Ford Y street rod......... something for the weekend!

    ...... if a photobucket pic is foggy, click it, and it'll take you to the clear version, yes, it's a clicking faff....

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Dunedin, South Island, New Zealand
    Posts
    605

    Default

    The churn of cars in the UK is at most 2 million per year - to replace 30 million will obviously take a while. I'm not sure that all will be replaced, as per Jonathan's points above. Also, a fair number of cars sold between now and 2030 will still have an internal combustion engine, and cars sold up to 2035 can be hybrids, so petrol for our NSXs will be available for another 15-20 years at least. And as the NSX has a solid, stable platform (no rust), an EV conversion of some sort isn't going to be too difficult in the future...
    December '99 GH-NA2 110 series - 6AS62 Type S in Monte Carlo Blue Pearl

  10. #10

    Default

    I have worked in the energy sector for all my career on the pipes and wires side. At one point I was responsible the design and capital investment program for the National Gas Transmission system originally built to bring natural gas to the UK from the North Sea fields. In the 90s and early 2000s this network was expanded to respond to the "dash for gas" which refers to the significant number of gas fired power stations being built that contributed significantly to carbon emissions by replacing coal fired generation.

    The electricity challenge is not just transport but space heating where the peak gas demand is 4-5 times the current peak electricity demand. One of the proposed solutions is to shave the heat load peak by smart control of car batteries, so your car battery will be used to power your house heating at say 6-8 in the morning - oh dear then you have no power to use the car for a while.

    The electrification of all our energy needs has major impacts on the electricity infrastructure not only on the network side but also in the home, you may need a bigger cable or a 3 phase supply if you have a high heat pump load to heat your house and several car charging points for your family. So this is why the government is supporting test projects and research into repurposing all the natural gas infrastructure for the distribution of Hydrogen - the big challenge the production using green power. Hydrogen boilers already exist - the pipes to get it to your home already exist it makes economic sense.


    Quote Originally Posted by Papalazarou View Post
    I think we’ll be dead by the time things really get serious! Check out the Harry’s garage video on YouTube discussing this very topic. It’s really interesting.
    Personally I think these things take longer than we think they will. There are well over 30 million cars on the road, and a considerable amount of these cars are driven by people who cannot afford to buy or lease new electric vehicles. We are also lacking an adequate infrastructure. My friends who work at the power station tell me we’d be in a bit of trouble if we all started buying electric. This is hearsay however, but I think they’re right.
    I guess the big changes will be driven from the cities where owning your own car will seem untenable in the next ten or so years. You’ll simply hire what you need when you need it. It makes me wonder whether driving will become a thing of the past for many; if you grow up in a city, then go to university in a city how likely are you to want or need to drive. You probably end up working from home anyway.
    The classic segment is quite small in comparison to the bulk of vehicles on the road. Rising prices stop us from using them and they have a tiny carbon footprint compared to new electric vehicles. Exactly how much of a carbon footprint can a thirty year old car that does a thousand miles a year have?
    With regard to the younger drivers becoming interested in classics. Well, where I live there is quite a lot of interest. It worries me that they are growing up with popularist junk like top gear. I watched half an episode last week. Just shocking painful rubbish. But there is a huge amount of content on youtube and other social media.
    Personally I think that the 80’s to mid 90’s was the heyday of cars. They became usable and are still easy to work on. Build quality was better than it is now and cars were stylish. But with every generation that fades away, so another era of cars is eventually lost. If no-one remembers them, or they are too
    Difficult to look after. There is little or no incentive to own them.

    I think we’ll be ok for a while.

    Cheers.
    [SIGPIC]

    www.nsxclub.co.uk

    2001 NA2 Imola Orange Pearl/Black Leather (Type S evocation)
    2003 NA2 Long Beach Blue/Black Leather (NSX-R evocation)

    Non NSX
    Lotus Carlton 30/250

    Previous NSX
    2004 NA2-R Championship White/Red Seats 111/150 personal import April 2016 sold 2020
    NA2 2005 NA2 LBB/Grey Leather last 12 car, 2005 Pearl White/Red Leather last 12 car, 2003-T Black/Black, 2003-T Red/Black
    NA1 1996 Type R White/Black 447/483, 2 x 1991 manual, 1993 manual, 1996-T manual, 2002-T F-matic

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